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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.